To Infinite and Beyond!

In 2004, former President George W. Bush announced his “Vision for Space Exploration.” In it he called for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to develop new spaceflight vehicles as part of the Constellation Program that would aim to return humans to the Moon by 2020.  The estimated budget for implementing this program, according to a July 17, 2006 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, was nearly $230 billion. 

The problems with implementing the Constellation Program are well documented.  To meet the goal set by President Bush, NASA would need a drastically increased budget over multiple decades and would also have to reduce its budgets for science, research in aeronautics, end U.S. involvement in the $100 billion International Space Station (ISS), and retire the Space Shuttle by the end of the year. 

According to an August 26, 2009 GAO report, NASA is developing the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle and the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle “as the agency’s first major efforts in a plan to return to the Moon and eventually send humans to Mars.” Original budget proposals for the Constellation Program called for a significant increase in NASA’s budget and were ultimately never executed.  As a result, schedules slipped and cost estimates continued to grow.  The program now faces cancellation in President Obama’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2011 budget, which is currently making its way through Congress.

The Constellation Program has been scrutinized since its inception for uncertain cost estimates, cost growth, major technical difficulties, and a timeline that is constantly being pushed further into the future.  In the early stages of the program, the July 17, 2006 GAO report stated that “the agency cannot at this time provide a firm estimate of what it will take to implement the architecture…NASA will be challenged to implement the architecture recommended in the study within its projected budget.”  Three years and $10 billion later, the GAO again evaluated the program (in the August 26, 2009 report), and found that, “NASA estimates that Ares I and Orion represent up to $49 billion of the over $97 billion estimated to be spent on the Constellation program through 2020.  While the agency has already obligated more than $10 billion in contracts, at this point NASA does not know how much Ares I and Orion will ultimately cost, and will not know until technical and design challenges have been addressed.” 

In a climate of economic turmoil, President Obama and NASA have wisely proposed cancelling the unsustainable Constellation Program and are instead turning to private companies to oversee launches.  This policy shift will be a welcome change for taxpayers, as well as the nation’s fiscal outlook.