Increased Gas Exports Are Unlikely to Result in Higher Energy Prices
In Economics 101, students learn the lesson of supply and demand and understand that in a perfect market system, less supply means higher prices. However, they also learn that perfect market systems don’t exist, so this rule does not always apply, including the U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry.
On November 17, 2025, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce favorably reported H.R. 1949, “Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2025,” to the House of Representatives. This bill removes certain restrictions on the export and import of natural gas and grants the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission more authority over facilities importing and exporting LNG. H.R. 1949 furthers the objectives of President Trump’s January 20, 2025, Executive Order No. 14154, “Unleashing American Energy,” by lifting the Biden-era restrictions on LNG exports, boosting the American energy sector and creating jobs, and stimulating the economy.
Opponents to loosening the export and import regulations for LNG claim that if less natural gas remains in the United States, domestic energy prices will rise due to the lack of supply. However, a House Committee on Energy and Commerce fact sheet states, “the decision to ban exports […] discourages investments that would […] expand the supply of natural gas.” A February 28, 2024, Center for Strategic International Studies article noted that, “in a high supply growth scenario, […] prices can remain cheap even with significant growth in LNG exports.”
“Perfect” economic models analyze a single good by holding everything else constant, but energy markets are always fluctuating. Deregulation of the natural gas trade comes as a part of President Trump’s coordinated effort to unleash American energy. Loosening regulations on fossil fuels, investing in nuclear energy facilities, and experimenting with new forms of energy, such as fusion and geothermal, will all result in higher energy supply and lower energy prices for American businesses and households. Much-needed permitting reform will further secure accessible and affordable energy supply by ensuring that the country has widespread and resilient infrastructure, which connects every home and business to energy sources.
In addition to providing indirect economic benefits, like investments in manufacturing and enhanced national security, increased LNG exports are projected to add $73 billion and more than 453,000 jobs to the U.S. economy by 2040. In the big picture of a shifting energy landscape, deregulated natural gas trade will increase profits and save consumers money, which is always a good economics lesson.
